For Immediate Release
Contact:
Dan Cassino, Executive Director, FDU Poll
973.896.7072/dcassino@fdu.edu
A year later, Newark residents see little progress on police reforms
Reminding people of BLM protests cuts their faith in voting
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 31, 2021 – In the more than a year since more than 12,000 people marched in Newark as part of the wave of Black Lives Matter protests carried out nationwide last year, residents of the state’s largest city say that they’ve seen little progress on police reforms. In the FDU Poll, conducted in three languages, residents also say that voting is the most effective way of making political change – but their faith in that efficacy has been cut by the experience of the BLM protests. This drop in the belief that people can make political change is the biggest among Black respondents: for them, the memory of BLM reduces political efficacy across the board.
Overall, only 12 percent of Newark residents say that there has been “a lot” or “a great deal” of progress on police reform and related matters in the time since the Black Lives Matter protests in the city. The largest group (33 percent) say that there has been “a little” progress, but a quarter (23 percent) say that there has been no progress at all. While these assessments don’t vary significantly across racial and ethnic groups in Newark, Democrats are less likely than other partisan groups to say that no progress has been made (18 percent, versus 25 for Republicans and 37 for independents).
Residents are only a little more optimistic about the likelihood of progress being made in the upcoming year. Nineteen percent of residents – and 23 percent of Black residents in the city – say that they expect no progress at all in the next year, but a majority (60 percent) say that they expect “a little” or “some” progress on these issues. This figure includes 63 percent of Hispanic residents and 62 percent of whites, but a significantly smaller share (57 percent) of Black residents.
“The BLM protests were a moment of real anger, but also real hope that change was possible,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and the Executive Director of the poll. “Even in a city with leadership that’s friendly to police reforms, few people think that a lot of progress has been made.”
Newark residents were also asked about various ways of making political change. Of the seven ways of making their voices heard that the survey asked, residents are most likely to say that voting works, with 62 percent saying that it is “very effective,” and only 6 percent saying that it is “not at all effective.” In contrast, only 13 percent of Newark residents say that disruptive or violent protests are “very effective,” and 40 percent say that peaceful protests are.
“The history of violent protests in the 60s continues to shape the views of Newark residents,” said Cassino. “More than 50 years later, Newark residents still reject violence as a way of making political change.”
While the overall results on views of political efficacy believe that government responds to elections and peaceful protests, this faith seems to have been shaken by the experience of the BLM protests last year. In the survey, half of the respondents were randomly assigned to be asked questions about political efficacy before being asked about progress on police reforms; half were asked afterward. This means that half of the respondents were primed to be thinking about the BLM protests and their results when they were answering questions about ways of making political change: those respondents were less likely to think that voting actually works.
Sixty-six percent of respondents who were asked about how to make political change before being asked about the BLM protests say that voting is “very effective.” But when the battery was asked after the questions about BLM protests, only 57 percent say that voting is “very effective.”
Among Newark residents overall, reminders of the BLM protests have only a modest effect reducing the perceived efficacy of political actions. The effect is much bigger among Black respondents. Priming them to think about the BLM protests and police reform reduces the likelihood that they rate voting as “very effective” by nine points, but also makes them six points less likely to say that peaceful protests are “very effective” (from 44 percent to 38 percent; the difference among residents overall is just 3 points).
“There’s a basic belief that people can make political change through normal democratic means,” said Cassino. “But that belief seems to have been really tested by the experience of the BLM protests, and the failure to see the changes that they may have been hoping for.”
Importantly, this decline in the perceived efficacy of traditional means of political action such as voting, contacting elected officials and peaceful protest is not accompanied by an increased belief in the efficacy of violent or disruptive protests. Instead, among Black respondents, reminders of the BLM protests reduce the perceived efficacy of political actions across the board.
There are other significant differences in how Newark residents think that they can make political change. Democrats, for instance, are much more likely to think that voting and contacting elected officials are “very effective” means of influencing politics than Republicans or independents are. Older Newark residents are much more likely than younger ones to say that voting is effective (72 percent of residents 65 and over say it’s “very effective,” compared with 54 percent of those 30 and under), and younger ones are more likely to say that social media posts can make a difference (42 percent of those 30 and under say they are “very effective,” compared with 20 percent of those 65 and up).
“People’s views of political efficacy are shaped by what they see,” said Cassino. “Young people have seen the effect that videos on social media have had, and they see that as being a more effective way to influence politics than protests.”
In a troubling turn, younger Newark residents are more likely than older ones to say that disruptive or violent protests are “very effective,” though the overall numbers are still low (14 percent among those 30 and under; 10 percent among those 65 and older). Still, the trend is real: 39 percent of voters 30 and under say that violent or disruptive protests are “very” or “somewhat” effective, compared to just 27 percent of the oldest cohort.
Among Black residents of Newark, social media posts are seen as the second most effective way of influencing politics, tied with peaceful protests, as 40 percent see each of them as being “very effective.” In contrast, only 18 percent of white residents say that social media posts are “very effective” in creating political change.
“Social media is a way of leveling the political playing field,” said Cassino. “So, it’s no surprise that traditionally disadvantaged groups see it as an important way of making their voices heard.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted between July 9 and August 11, 2021, using a certified list of residents of Newark, New Jersey. Voters were randomly chosen from the list and contacted in one of two ways. Three-quarters of the respondents (827) received an invitation through SMS (text) to fill out the survey online, via a provided link. The other quarter of respondents (273) were contacted via telephone, using the same registered voter list. The survey covers 1,100 Newark residents, ages 18 and older, and was conducted mostly in English (1039), with the remainder in Spanish (57) and Portuguese (4). The survey was carried out by Braun Research, Inc, of Princeton, New Jersey. Of the interviews, 146 were conducted over landlines, the remainder via cell phones.
The survey included a significant oversample of African-American/Black voters in Newark, which allows for more accurate comparisons between this and other groups, as well as the calculation of subgroup characteristics that would not be possible in a simple probability sample. Such oversamples necessarily require additional weighting in order to calculate population-level values, but the weights used for this are not included in the calculation of design effects, as they do not indicate a divergence between the sample and the population.
The data were weighted to be representative of the registered voter population of New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, and race/ethnicity.
SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.25.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 1100 residents of Newark is +/-2.96 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.73 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.
This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question-wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects.
Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics
1100 Newark Residents
Figures do not include respondents who declined to answer the demographic item in question
Man
47% N = 526
Woman
50% N = 548
Some Other Way
1% N = 13
18-24
14% N = 157
25-34
21% N = 234
35-44
18% N = 201
45-64
29% N = 311
65+
13% N = 146
Democrat (with leaners)
59% N = 645
Independent
13% N = 142
Republican (with leaners)
10% N = 111
White
11% N = 124
Black
49% N = 528
Hispanic/Latino/a
36% N = 387
Asian
2% N = 23
Other/Multi-racial
2% N = 22
HS or Less
34% N = 376
Some College/Vocational
30% N = 329
College degree or more
34% N = 377
Question wording and order
Approval items released on 23 August
[Half of the respondents get these items before P1; Half get them after P2] P3A-G. What follows are various ways in which people might try to have their voices heard on social and political matters. For each, tell me how effective you think that method is:
[Shuffle Order of Items]
- Voting
- Peaceful Protests
- Contacting Elected Officials
- Social Media Posts
- Online petitions
- Boycotts
- Disruptive or Violent Protests
Very Effective
Somewhat Effective
Not Very Effective
Not At All Effective
[DK/REF]
P1. Last Summer, there were worldwide protests in support of the Black Lives Matter movement. Since those protests, how much progress do you feel has been made on police reform and related issues?
None at all
A Little
Some
A Lot
A Great Deal
[DK/REF]
P2. And how much progress do you think will be made on police reform and related issues in the next year?
None at all
A Little
Some
A Lot
A Great Deal
[DK/REF]
School/Segregation Items released 8/26
Release Tables
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How Effective is Each of the Following? |
% Very Effective |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
Voting |
62 |
64 |
61 |
62 |
|
Peaceful Protest |
40 |
33 |
40 |
42 |
|
Social Media Posts |
35 |
18 |
40 |
33 |
|
Boycotts |
34 |
25 |
39 |
32 |
|
Contacting Elected Officials |
26 |
21 |
27 |
27 |
|
Online Petitions |
19 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
|
Disruptive/Violent Protests |
13 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective is Each of the Following? |
% Very Effective |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Voting |
62 |
54 |
56 |
70 |
72 |
|
Peaceful Protest |
40 |
37 |
40 |
41 |
44 |
|
Social Media Posts |
35 |
42 |
38 |
34 |
20 |
|
Boycotts |
34 |
32 |
33 |
39 |
34 |
|
Contacting Elected Officials |
26 |
24 |
25 |
28 |
27 |
|
Online Petitions |
19 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
13 |
|
Disruptive/Violent Protests |
13 |
14 |
15 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective is Each of the Following? |
% Very Effective |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Voting |
62 |
71 |
54 |
51 |
|
Peaceful Protest |
40 |
45 |
32 |
35 |
|
Social Media Posts |
35 |
37 |
30 |
31 |
|
Boycotts |
34 |
38 |
32 |
32 |
|
Contacting Elected Officials |
26 |
29 |
28 |
18 |
|
Online Petitions |
19 |
20 |
24 |
17 |
|
Disruptive/Violent Protests |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective is Voting |
Overall |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Very Effective |
62 |
54 |
56 |
70 |
72 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
25 |
29 |
29 |
20 |
17 |
|
Not Very Effective |
5 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Not At All Effective |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective is Voting |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Very Effective |
62 |
71 |
54 |
52 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
25 |
22 |
28 |
24 |
|
Not Very Effective |
5 |
2 |
9 |
7 |
|
Not At All Effective |
6 |
3 |
9 |
16 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective is Peaceful Protest |
Overall |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Very Effective |
40 |
37 |
40 |
41 |
44 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
38 |
39 |
34 |
38 |
39 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
5 |
|
Not At All Effective |
10 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
9 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective is Peaceful Protest |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Very Effective |
40 |
45 |
32 |
35 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
38 |
39 |
38 |
24 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
7 |
17 |
15 |
|
Not At All Effective |
10 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How Effective is Contacting Elected Officials |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
Very Effective |
26 |
21 |
26 |
27 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
38 |
40 |
38 |
|
Not Very Effective |
17 |
23 |
17 |
16 |
|
Not At All Effective |
14 |
16 |
12 |
15 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective is Contacting Elected Officials |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Very Effective |
26 |
29 |
28 |
18 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
41 |
31 |
34 |
|
Not Very Effective |
17 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
|
Not At All Effective |
14 |
9 |
20 |
27 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective are Social Media Posts |
Overall |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Very Effective |
35 |
42 |
38 |
34 |
20 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
36 |
35 |
41 |
47 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
10 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
|
Not At All Effective |
11 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How Effective are Social Media Posts |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
Very Effective |
35 |
18 |
40 |
33 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
39 |
39 |
41 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
|
Not At All Effective |
11 |
19 |
8 |
13 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective are Social Media Posts |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Very Effective |
35 |
37 |
30 |
31 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
41 |
35 |
34 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
10 |
15 |
11 |
|
Not At All Effective |
11 |
8 |
19 |
21 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective are Online Petitions |
Overall |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Very Effective |
19 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
13 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
43 |
43 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
|
Not Very Effective |
16 |
19 |
16 |
13 |
17 |
|
Not At All Effective |
15 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
7 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How Effective are Boycotts |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
Very Effective |
34 |
25 |
39 |
32 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
35 |
36 |
37 |
28 |
|
Not Very Effective |
11 |
19 |
9 |
10 |
|
Not At All Effective |
13 |
17 |
8 |
18 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
7 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How Effective are Boycotts |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Very Effective |
34 |
38 |
32 |
32 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
35 |
38 |
32 |
24 |
|
Not Very Effective |
11 |
9 |
12 |
14 |
|
Not At All Effective |
13 |
9 |
16 |
23 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
7 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
|
|
How Effective are Disruptive/Violent Protests |
Overall |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Very Effective |
13 |
14 |
15 |
10 |
10 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
18 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
17 |
|
Not Very Effective |
19 |
21 |
17 |
21 |
17 |
|
Not At All Effective |
45 |
34 |
45 |
53 |
49 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How Effective are Disruptive/Violent Protests |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
Very Effective |
13 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
18 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
|
Not Very Effective |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
Not At All Effective |
45 |
48 |
44 |
48 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How much progress do you feel has been made on police reform and related |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
None at All |
23 |
25 |
24 |
22 |
|
A Little |
33 |
24 |
38 |
28 |
|
Some |
27 |
38 |
23 |
30 |
|
A Lot |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
A Great Deal |
5 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How much progress do you feel has been made on police reform and related |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
None at All |
23 |
18 |
37 |
25 |
|
A Little |
33 |
39 |
18 |
23 |
|
Some |
27 |
28 |
28 |
23 |
|
A Lot |
7 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
|
A Great Deal |
5 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
3 |
6 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Race/Ethnic |
|
|
How much progress do you think will be made on police reform in the next year? |
Overall |
White |
Black |
Hisp/Lat |
|
None at All |
19 |
18 |
23 |
14 |
|
A Little |
31 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
|
Some |
29 |
28 |
27 |
31 |
|
A Lot |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
A Great Deal |
7 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
6 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Party ID |
|
|
How much progress do you think will be made on police reform in the next year? |
Overall |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
None at All |
19 |
16 |
24 |
22 |
|
A Little |
31 |
34 |
32 |
21 |
|
Some |
29 |
30 |
25 |
32 |
|
A Lot |
8 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
|
A Great Deal |
7 |
6 |
10 |
6 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
6 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective is Voting |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
62 |
66 |
57 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
25 |
20 |
29 |
|
Not Very Effective |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
Not At All Effective |
6 |
6 |
7 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective are Peaceful Protests |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
40 |
41 |
38 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
38 |
37 |
38 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
Not At All Effective |
10 |
9 |
12 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective is Contacting Elected Officials |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
26 |
28 |
23 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
36 |
42 |
|
Not Very Effective |
17 |
16 |
18 |
|
Not At All Effective |
14 |
15 |
13 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective are Social Media Posts |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
35 |
35 |
35 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
39 |
37 |
42 |
|
Not Very Effective |
10 |
12 |
8 |
|
Not At All Effective |
11 |
12 |
10 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective are Online Petitions |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
19 |
21 |
17 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
43 |
42 |
45 |
|
Not Very Effective |
16 |
17 |
15 |
|
Not At All Effective |
15 |
14 |
16 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
7 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective are Violent/Disruptive Protests |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
13 |
13 |
11 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
18 |
17 |
20 |
|
Not Very Effective |
19 |
20 |
18 |
|
Not At All Effective |
45 |
45 |
45 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective are Boycotts |
Overall |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Very Effective |
34 |
35 |
34 |
|
Somewhat Effective |
35 |
33 |
35 |
|
Not Very Effective |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
Not At All Effective |
13 |
14 |
12 |
|
Don’t Know/Refused (Vol) |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
|
Condition |
|
|
How Effective is Each of the Following? |
% Very Effective |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Voting |
62 |
66 |
57 |
|
Peaceful Protest |
40 |
41 |
38 |
|
Social Media Posts |
35 |
35 |
35 |
|
Boycotts |
34 |
35 |
34 |
|
Contacting Elected Officials |
26 |
28 |
23 |
|
Online Petitions |
19 |
21 |
17 |
|
Disruptive/Violent Protests |
13 |
13 |
11 |
|
|
|
AA/Black |
|
|
How Effective is Each of the Following? |
% Very Effective |
Before BLM Qs |
After BLM Qs |
|
Voting |
61 |
66 |
57 |
|
Peaceful Protest |
40 |
44 |
38 |
|
Social Media Posts |
40 |
43 |
38 |
|
Boycotts |
39 |
40 |
38 |
|
Contacting Elected Officials |
27 |
29 |
24 |
|
Online Petitions |
20 |
24 |
18 |
|
Disruptive/Violent Protests |
12 |
15 |
10 |