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PublicMind research for years 2001-2015

For immediate release Wednesday, March 23, 2016                            6 pages           

Contact:  Dan Cassino [redacted]; dcassino@fdu.edu    @dancassino

Thought of a Woman President Rattles Male Voters in New Jersey

Fairleigh Dickinson University, March 23, 2016 – Hillary Clinton is expected to easily beat a Republican candidate in New Jersey’s November presidential election, but there are signs the discomfort some people—particularly men—have with the thought of a female president could cost Clinton as much as 8 percent of the vote, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll. Male voters who were prompted to consider Clinton’s gender are 24 percent less likely to support her in a match-up against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.

“This was a simple experiment,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Political Science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of experimental research for the poll. “Half the people interviewed were posed with a question that prompted thoughts about gender and the other half were not.”

Overall, Clinton was up by 19 percent over Donald Trump among New Jersey voters who were not prompted to consider gender, but only up by 11 percent among those voters who were asked about it. The gender factor had no effect on support for the other Democratic candidate—Bernie Sanders—who was up by 14 percent over Trump among voters who were asked about it, and up 16 percent among voters who were not—indicating the effect was specifically driven by Clinton’s gender rather than her political party.

The magnitude of the gender factor is even more striking when comparing the opinions of men and women.   

Among men who did not receive the gender question, Clinton bests Trump by 16 points—49 percent to 33 percent. Among men who were asked the gender question, Trump has more support than Clinton by a margin of 50 points to 42 points. All told, reminding men about gender issues, leads to a 24-point swing in the match up, from a 16-point advantage for Clinton to an eight-point deficit.

Interestingly, women who were asked the gender question before being asked about their vote choice became more likely to vote for Clinton. Without the gender prime, Clinton had a 21-point edge over Trump among New Jersey women—57 percent to 36 percent. Asking about gender reduced Trump’s support among women by 10 points, giving Clinton a 33-point margin—59 percent to 26 percent.

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone February 24-28, 2016 among a random statewide sample of 694 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 points, including the design effect.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at [redacted]                For more information, please call [redacted]

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from February 24-28, 2016, using a randomly selected sample of 694 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race.  379 interviews were conducted on landlines and 315 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 through NJ 2 released March 2

NJ4 and NJ5 released March 9, 2016

NJ6 and NJ7 released March 3, 2016

CC1 through CC5 withheld for future release

TIP1 through TIP4 released March 14, 2016

ENV withheld for future release

[Note: ½ of sample are asked D6 and D6A before “word” series; remaining half asked in normal flow of demo series]

[Randomize DTWORD, CCWORD, BOWORD AND ALWAYS ASK HCWORD FIRST] – RECORD ONE WORD ONLY]

HCWORD        In a single word, how would you describe Hillary Clinton?

BOWORD        In a single word, how would you describe Barack Obama?

DTWORD         In a single word, how would you describe Donald Trump?

CCWORD        In a single word, how would you describe Chris Christie?

[Randomize order of pres1 and pres2]

PRE1S If the election for president was held today, and the choices were Hillary Clinton and Donald

Trump [randomize], who would you vote for?

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Donald Trump

3          Other (vol)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

PRES2 If the election for president was held today, and the choices were Bernie Sanders and Donald

Trump [randomize], who would you vote for?

1          Bernie Sanders

2          Donald Trump

3          Other (vol)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

D6       Currently are you married, living as married, divorced, widowed, or never been married?

1          Married/living as married                     [Ask D6A]

2          Divorced

3          Widowed

4          Never been married

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

D6A     Would you say that your spouse earns more than you, less than you, or about the same as you, or is your spouse unemployed? [rotate more then you/less than you]

1          More than you

2          Less than you

3          About the same

4          Unemployed

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

Weighted sample characteristics