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PublicMind research for years 2001-2014

For immediate release Tuesday, October 13, 2015                    8 pp.

Contact:  Krista Jenkins; kjenkins@fdu.edu [redacted]

How gender plays a role in the mind of voters

Fairleigh Dickinson University, October 13, 2015 - The most recent national survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind asks whether talking about gender issues affects voter choices. Both parties have women as potential presidential nominees for 2016, and it remains to be seen as to whether talking about so called “women’s issues” will help or hurt their candidacies.

Republican and Democratic respondents were asked a series of questions about the pay gap between men and women either before they were asked about their candidate preference for their party’s nomination or after. The first question asked whether they believed women were paid less than men for similar work, and the second asked how serious is the problem.

When voters are reminded of the wage gap between men and women, male candidates benefit more than the two women in the race. Sixty six percent of those asked about the pay gap before the candidate preference question favored male candidates, with 59 percent of those asked about the gap afterwards favoring men, too. This suggests that priming voters to think about gender inequity makes them favor male candidates more than when pay inequity is not fresh in their minds. Conversely, twenty-three percent of the pre-pay gap respondents favored a female candidate, compared with 32 percent who were asked about differences in pay between women and men after expressing their candidate preference. Voters, therefore, gravitate toward female candidates less often when gender inequity is discussed before they identify with whom they support.

“The direction of the differences are consistent with what PublicMind found in 2008 when Hillary Clinton was running in the Democratic primary against Barack Obama. Back then when we asked about a variety of issues related to gender before the candidate preference question, Clinton received less support than when the specter of gender inequality was raised after,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science.

In examining the findings among Republicans and Democrats separately, the bulk of the difference among female candidates comes from Clinton. Carly Fiorina’s support drops a little, while Clinton’s support drops by a larger degree.

“The small sample inflates the margin of error and results should be interpreted with caution. But to the extent talking about the pay gap primes voters to support either Fiorina or Clinton more than they would otherwise, the data does not appear to bear this out. To some extent, the seeming lack of an effect for Fiorna makes sense, as the other numbers show that Republicans are less likely to both recognize and identify the pay gap as a significant problem. However, on the Democratic side, the numbers for Clinton suggest that talking about the pay gap may work to her disadvantage among registered Democrats,” said Jenkins.

The same survey finds that more than two thirds (69%) believe that women are paid less than men for similar work, and almost half of respondents consider it a “significant” problem, with an additional 40 percent who see it as a “minor” problem. Around one-in-ten (13%) believe the wage gap is not a problem at all. Current research suggests women earn 79 cents to every dollar earned by men.

“Despite debates over its existence, most voters are unpersuaded by the naysayers. The pay gap between women and men is, for many, a problem that is both real and significant,” said Jenkins.

Although majorities of both women (76%) and men (61%) believe the pay gap exists, women are more decisive in their belief it is a “significant” problem. Half (51%) of voting women evaluate it as a bigger problem than men (36%). Partisan differences prevail as well. Democratic voters are the most likely to believe the pay gap exists (79%) and see it as a significant problem (56%), with Republicans the least likely (59 and 30%, respectively).

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone October 1-5, 2015 among a random national sample of 824 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at [redacted]                For more information, please call [redacted]

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 1-5, 2015 using a randomly selected sample of 824 registered voters nationwide. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

Interviews were conducted by SSRS of Media, Pennsylvania, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline or cellular phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 452 interviews were conducted on landlines and 372 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

Exact Question Wording and Order

ELEC1 through ELEC5 released October 8, 2015

D1       Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE…

Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]

4          Other [DON’T READ]

8          Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9          Ref [DON’T READ]

D1b     Which way do you lean?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Neither

8          DK (Vol)

[Note: ½ would get SEX1 and SEX2 before D1; ½ would get SEX1 and SEX2 after PRES series]

SEX1               Based on what you have heard and read, do you believe that women are paid less than men for similar work, or do you believe a wage gap does not exist [rotate]?

1          Wage gap exists                                  

2          Wage gap DOES NOT exist

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

SEX2    How much, if at all, do you believe pay inequity between men and women is a problem in the U.S.?  Would you say it is a…

1          Significant problem

2          A minor problem

3          Not a problem at all

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

If DEM/LEAN DEM ASK PRESD; IF REPUB/LEAN REPUB ASK PRESR

PRESRA           I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1          Jeb Bush

2          Ben Carson

3          Chris Christie

4          Ted Cruz

5          Carly Fiorina

6          Jim Gilmore

7          Lindsey Graham

8          Mike Huckabee

9          Bobby Jindal

10        John Kasich

11        George Pataki

12        Rand Paul

13        Marco Rubio

14        Rick Santorum

15        Donald Trump

16        Other (vol)

17        Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

PRESDA          I’m going to read you a list of declared and potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1          Joe Biden

2          Lincoln Chafee

3          Hillary Clinton

4          Laurence Lessig [LESS-ig]

5          Martin O’Malley

6          Bernie Sanders

7          JimWebb

8          Other (vol)

9          Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

PRES2 released October 8, 2015

Sample Characteristics